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Ohio couple married 65 years die 11 hours...Poll: Economists anticipate Fed to pull back in fourth quarter By Ylan Q. Mui, Nearly 40 percent of economists polled in a new industry survey believe the Federal Reserve will not begin to scale back its multibillion-dollar stimulus program until the fourth quarter, despite widespread speculation that the central bank will pull back sooner.
The survey, released Monday by the National Association of Business Economists, polled 220 of its members. Only 10 percent anticipated that the Fed would decide to begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at its meeting in September. About 27 percent did not believe it would start until the first quarter of 2014.
More business newsUPS to cut employees' working spouses from its health plans
Jena McGregor Employers usually prefer to make employees pay more as costs increase. Cutting benefit options entirely is much rarer.
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Jena McGregor As long as such jobs dangle the lure of vast riches, people are going to work hard--in some cases, too hard--to reach them.
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J.D. Harrison Some are concerned new regulations meant to protect investors will water down the impact of crowdfunding and the JOBS Act.
SEC delays spark hostility on Capitol HillMore business newsThe exact date of the first reduction in Fed stimulus has loomed over investors since Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in June that the central bank would likely begin the process this year and end the program altogether when the unemployment rate hits 7 percent, which is expected to occur in mid-2014. The announcement ignited a sell-off in the markets, which have been spooked by the prospect ever since.
Minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting show that officials remain divided over whether the economy is strong enough to support a slowdown in stimulus. The bond-buying program is intended to tamp down long-term interest rates and boost demand among consumers and businesses. Some officials believe tepid job growth and weaker-than-anticipated GDP support are delaying a slowdown in stimulus, while others worry about the mounting risks of continued bond-buying.
The NABE survey showed 57 percent of economists believed current monetary policy was “about right,” about the same percentage as in March. But half believed the Fed would begin to raise short-term interest rates in 2014 — ahead of central bank officials’ own projections.
In their most recent forecast, 15 of the Fed’s top officials said they do not plan on raising rates until 2015. Only three projected a rate hike next year.
The Fed has tried to separate expectations for its bond-buying program from the path of short-term interest rates. Officials have said the Fed will not raise rates from near zero at least until the unemployment rate hits 6.5 percent or inflation reaches 2.5 percent.
While the NABE survey showed about one-third of economists supporting that bar for unemployment, about as many think it should be broadened or replaced with other measures of labor market conditions. Fifteen percent said it should be eliminated.
Economists were much more comfortable with the Fed’s inflation target, according to the NABE poll. About 70 percent believed that threshold should stand.
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